Weekly Report - 10 February 2004
CHILE: Insulza to join ranks of `presidenciables'?
Interior minister José Miguel Insulza will not, after all, be contending for the post of secretary-general of the Organisation of American States (OAS). The question circulating in Santiago is whether he will become yet another of the contenders for the ruling Concertación's presidential nomination.
Much has been said about the two presidenciables of the Concertación who have been doing relatively well in the opinion surveys, both of them women: defence minister Michelle Bachelet, of the Socialist party (PS), and foreign minister Soledad Alvear, a Christian Democrat (DC). Though the polls suggest that the Chilean public at large is ready for a woman President, many are wondering if the country's political establishment is equally prepared.
One member of that establishment who, at least as regards the next elections, is not keen on either of them is DC president Adolfo Zaldívar, who is widely seen as preparing the ground for housing minister and former Santiago mayor Jaime Ravinet. One suggestion that is being made by political analysts is that enlisting el Panzer Insulza in the race would give the PS a `balancing option'.
It is, of course, early days. First must come the municipal elections due in the second half of this year, when both the ruling coalition and its rightwing rivals will be able to gauge their real strengths (beyond the opinion polls), and within the Concertación, the two main member parties, DC and PS, will find out how they stand vis-í -vis each other.
For the Concertación, an important consideration must be their candidate's ability to attract votes from beyond their committed followers. So far, it is the candidate of the right, Joaquín Lavín of the Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI) who continues to lead the field, clearly appealing to segments of the electorate who in the past supported the Concertación. This may change, particularly if the Lagos administration succeeds in boosting Chile's economic growth rates to significantly higher levels, and in reducing the number of unemployed even more than it did last year.
Paradoxically, an improvement of the government's public standing could make it more, not less, difficult for the Concertación to agree on a presidential candidate, as the member parties feel secure enough to return to their bickering over preeminence and the `right to lead'.
Much has been said about the two presidenciables of the Concertación who have been doing relatively well in the opinion surveys, both of them women: defence minister Michelle Bachelet, of the Socialist party (PS), and foreign minister Soledad Alvear, a Christian Democrat (DC). Though the polls suggest that the Chilean public at large is ready for a woman President, many are wondering if the country's political establishment is equally prepared.
One member of that establishment who, at least as regards the next elections, is not keen on either of them is DC president Adolfo Zaldívar, who is widely seen as preparing the ground for housing minister and former Santiago mayor Jaime Ravinet. One suggestion that is being made by political analysts is that enlisting el Panzer Insulza in the race would give the PS a `balancing option'.
It is, of course, early days. First must come the municipal elections due in the second half of this year, when both the ruling coalition and its rightwing rivals will be able to gauge their real strengths (beyond the opinion polls), and within the Concertación, the two main member parties, DC and PS, will find out how they stand vis-í -vis each other.
For the Concertación, an important consideration must be their candidate's ability to attract votes from beyond their committed followers. So far, it is the candidate of the right, Joaquín Lavín of the Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI) who continues to lead the field, clearly appealing to segments of the electorate who in the past supported the Concertación. This may change, particularly if the Lagos administration succeeds in boosting Chile's economic growth rates to significantly higher levels, and in reducing the number of unemployed even more than it did last year.
Paradoxically, an improvement of the government's public standing could make it more, not less, difficult for the Concertación to agree on a presidential candidate, as the member parties feel secure enough to return to their bickering over preeminence and the `right to lead'.
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Rodríguez
alone in OAS race — for now
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| With Insulza removed
as a candidate to the top job at the OAS, the only declared contender in
the field is former Costa Rican President Miguel Angel Rodríguez.
Before Insulza's withdrawal he had attracted 15 endorsements from Caribbean
countries, plus five from South America (Colombia, Venezuela, Uruguay, Bolivia
and Paraguay). Since the withdrawal, it has enlisted two of the hemisphere's
heavyweights, Canada and Mexico. Unattached are two important ex-backers
of Insulza, Brazil and Argentina.
The only other (undeclared) aspirant is Salvadorean President Francisco Flores, whose term ends before the June OAS election. He is said to enjoy the support of the US, with whom he has aligned his country in almost every arena. End of preview - This article contains approximately 550 words Subscribers: Log in now to read the full article Not a Subscriber? Enquire Now |